President Trump is growing more likely to win a second term in November, according to a JPMorgan market guru who says investors should plan accordingly.
Violent protests against police brutality and skewed political polls have helped increase the betting odds of Trump beating Democratic nominee Joe Biden in November, according to Marko Kolanovic, JPMorgan’s global head of macro quantitative and derivatives research.
“Certainly a lot can happen in the next ~60 days to change the odds, but we currently believe that momentum in favor of Trump will continue, while most investors are still positioned for a Biden win,” Kolanovic wrote in a Monday research note.
Trump has been trailing Biden in many public polls, including a Suffolk University survey released Wednesday that showed the president seven points behind.
But Kolanovic says the polls could be inflating Biden’s advantage by 5 to 6 percent because “the liberal trend of ‘cancel culture’” has made some Trump supporters less likely to be honest with pollsters.
His analysis is reminiscent of the 2016 election, in which Trump pulled out an Electoral College victory despite polls predicting a win for Hillary Clinton.
Republicans could also gain about five to 10 points from Democrats if voters’ perceptions of the recent protests change from peaceful to violent, Kolanovic argued.
“Social media distribution of videos of looting in Chicago, LA and NYC, arson in Minneapolis, Wisconsin, Portland, Seattle, etc. have led to a significant shift in election odds in favor of Republicans,” he wrote.
Other key factors in the presidential race include the upcoming debates between Biden and Trump and the development of the coronavirus pandemic, which could wane by Election Day, according to Kolanovic.
Kolanovic has a strong track record of predicting market moves. He foresaw the rally in stocks after Trump’s 2016 win and the market’s swift recovery from this spring’s coronavirus-related crash, according to Bloomberg News.